President Cyril Ramaphosa has warned that South Africa must prepare for the possibility of losing its preferential access to the United States market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), amid strained relations between Pretoria and Washington.
Speaking on Monday, 19 October, Ramaphosa said the government needed to prepare for the potential economic consequences if the US decided to exclude South Africa from the trade programme.
“I need, as president, to prepare us if it ever happens,” Ramaphosa said, while acknowledging that the impact could be devastating.
The warning comes despite the extension of AGOA, which provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with preferential access to the US market, until December 2028. However, the extension does not guarantee that South Africa will remain eligible for the programme.
South Africa’s continued participation remains uncertain as the administration of US President Donald Trump reviews the eligibility of participating countries.
AGOA was established in 2000 to strengthen trade and economic ties between the United States and eligible African countries by allowing thousands of products to enter the US market duty-free.
South Africa has been one of the programme’s largest beneficiaries, with exporters relying on preferential access to compete in the American market.
However, relations between South Africa and the United States have deteriorated under Trump, with disagreements over South Africa’s domestic policies and foreign relations contributing to tensions between the two countries.
The Trump administration has raised concerns about South Africa’s policies, including allegations of discrimination against white South Africans, particularly Afrikaners. The South African government has rejected claims that Afrikaners face state-sponsored persecution.
The dispute has added uncertainty to the future of South Africa’s trade relationship with the US, with calls in Washington for the country to be removed from AGOA.
Although the programme has been extended, South Africa’s eligibility is a separate issue that could determine whether local exporters continue to benefit from its preferential trade arrangements.
The potential consequences extend beyond trade figures, with employment among the major concerns should South Africa lose access to AGOA.
The automotive industry is particularly exposed because the agreement has helped South African vehicle manufacturers export to the US market without certain import duties.
According to figures from the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA), approximately 86,000 jobs were directly linked to AGOA in the automotive sector in 2025. The figure rises to 125,000 when subcontractors are included.
Losing preferential access could make affected South African products more expensive for American buyers, depending on the tariffs that would apply. This could weaken the competitiveness of local exporters and place pressure on businesses that depend on US customers.
The consequences could extend to suppliers and other businesses connected to export industries, although the actual impact would depend on the products affected and the ability of companies to find alternative markets.
Ramaphosa said the government was preparing for the possibility of exclusion rather than assuming that South Africa’s participation in AGOA was guaranteed.
The government has also been exploring alternative export markets to reduce the country’s dependence on the US and limit the potential impact of losing preferential trade benefits.
Finding new customers and expanding into other markets could help exporters diversify their businesses. However, establishing new trade relationships takes time, and alternative destinations may not immediately replace the demand and commercial advantages offered by the American market.
For now, South Africa’s continued eligibility remains a key issue as the two countries navigate their strained relationship.
Ramaphosa’s warning signals that the government is preparing for a potentially serious economic setback, even as efforts continue to preserve South Africa’s access to the US market.
