Substantial Fuel Price Drop Expected in February Amid Strong Rand and Low Oil Prices

South African motorists are poised for continued relief at the pumps in February, with early data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicating significant decreases in petrol and diesel prices. Preliminary figures show over-recoveries building, with petrol over-recovering by around R1.20 per litre and diesel by up to R1.75 per litre. This points to potential cuts of approximately 85–125 cents per litre for petrol and R1.09–R1.84 per litre for diesel, depending on the final month-end adjustments.

The Department of Mineral Resources and Petroleum Resources will confirm the official changes at the end of January, with new prices typically effective from the first Wednesday of February (expected around February 4, 2026). These follow January’s reductions, where petrol dropped by 62–66 cents per litre and diesel by R1.37–R1.50 per litre, bringing levels to some of the lowest in nearly four years.

The key drivers are low global oil prices and a strengthened rand. Brent crude has been trading around $63–$66 per barrel (closing near $63.50–$64 on January 15), due to global oversupply from increased OPEC+ and non-OPEC production, high inventories, and easing geopolitical concerns. The rand has firmed significantly against the US dollar, hovering around R16.38–R16.42 in mid-January (from higher averages in late 2025), reducing the cost of dollar-priced fuel imports and contributing to the over-recoveries.

Analysts from sources including the Automobile Association (AA) and industry reports note that while forecasts are promising, they remain preliminary and vulnerable to volatility. Large early over-recoveries mean substantial rises in oil prices or rand weakening would be needed to reverse the downward trend—scenarios not currently indicated, though slight oil price fluctuations from Middle East tensions could moderate gains.

If trends hold, inland 93-octane unleaded petrol could fall to around R19.50–R19.80 per litre (from current levels near R20.60), with 95-octane seeing similar drops. Diesel wholesale prices are projected for even steeper reductions, aiding transport, logistics, and agriculture sectors.

These February levels would extend the relief, approaching some of the lowest since early 2022 before global events spiked prices above R26 per litre in mid-2022. While welcomed amid high living costs, experts stress that sustained lows depend on stable geopolitics, currency strength, and soft oil markets.